Markets

AM Market Report – February 9, 2026

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February 9, 2026
25 min read

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are gaining $3 to $5/tonne to start this morning…supported by a turn higher in vegoil markets…notably CBOT soyoil.

Chicago soybean futures are pushing 1 to 4 cents/bu lower this morning…conflicted by rising soyoil and weakening soymeal.

CBOT corn futures are leaning a penny weaker this morning.

US wheat markets are mixed. Spring wheat futures are less than a penny higher on the front end contracts, but down 2 to 3 cents in the deferreds. Winter wheat futures are steady to losing 3 cents.

Corn, soybeans and meal futures have pulled back from Friday s multi-week highs, while the wheat futures markets continue to languish, struggling to restart price uptrends on the daily bar charts. Soyoil futures hit a six-month high overnight on hopes for better demand for US bean oil from India.

Price action was lackluster to start last week, with corn, beans and wheat markets each poised to break lower. But a midweek bump following social media remarks from US President Donald Trump that powered soybean futures to multi-month highs…suggesting China may buy much more US soybeans in 2025-26. That led to spillover strength in canola, corn and wheat markets, though ample global supply continued to curb price gains.

Grain and oilseed markets will continue to look for follow-through on deals, so the bullish tone will need to be fed over the coming weeks. The market currently assumes that China will buy something from the US, though many industry players are skeptical that Trump s comments will prove accurate.

The USDA’s monthly supply/demand report is due on Tuesday (Feb 10). Overall, the data is expected to be bearish for corn, with a large US carryout estimate. For soybeans, US export forecasts could be raised, a bullish slant. For wheat, the USDA’s inventory estimates could be robust.

In Other News

– Large Prairie crops lead to increased December stocks… Bumper crops in Western Canada led to larger stocks of wheat, canola, barley and oats in the country as of Dec. 31, 2025, according to the latest stocks of principal field crops data from Statistics Canada, released Feb. 6. However, reduced production for soybeans and corn, grown primarily in Eastern Canada, cut into supplies of those commodities.

The following table is a recap of Statistics Canada s stocks report for the period ended December 31, 2025. Figures are in MMT.

Total Stocks Total Stocks 5-year avg
Dec 31/25 Dec 31/24 (2020-24)

Barley 5.685 4.870 4.846
Canola 15.623 13.225 12.614
Flaxseed 0.464 0.326 0.360
Oats 2.662 2.424 2.642
All wheat 27.500 25.975 23.623
Durum 5.348 4.515 3.878
Lentils 2.960 1.489 1.440
Peas 3.043 1.714 2.043

Wheat

Total Canadian wheat stocks as of Dec. 31 of 27.5 MMT were up 5.9% from the same point the previous year, and well above the five-year average of 23.6 MMT. Most traders and analysts were expecting total Dec. 31 wheat stocks to be lighter, with the average trade guess at 26.5 MMT. On-farm stocks at 24.1 MMT were up 7.2% on the year, while commercial stocks were down 2.7% at 3.4 MMT.

Of the total, durum stocks were up 18.5% year-over-year at 5.3 MMT.

Canola

Canola stocks as of Dec. 31, 2025, were up 18.8% on the year at 15.6 MMT. On-farm stocks were up 21.2% at 14.3 MMT, while commercial stocks dipped by 7.4% to 1.3 MMT. StatCan linked the larger canola supplies to increased 2025 production (21.8 MMT) and a sharp drop 36.1% drop in exports so far this marketing year due to Chinese tariffs.

But compared to trade expectations, canola stocks came in a bit lower than anticipated, with the average guess at 15.75 MMT.

Barley/Oats

Stocks of both barley and oats as of Dec. 31 were both higher compared to a year earlier despite increased use. StatCan showed national barley stockpiles as of Dec. 31 at 5.685 MMT, up 16.7% from the previous year. Meanwhile, oat stocks were reported at 2.662 MMT, an increase of 9.8% from a year earlier.

Pulses

Led by peas and lentils, stocks of most Canadian special crops were sharply higher as of Dec. 31 versus the previous year. Lentil stocks were pegged at 2.96 MMT, almost double the same time last year and topping the previous December high of 2.41 MMT in 2019.

Dec. 31 pea stocks came in at 3.034 MMT, up 77.5% from a year earlier and the beating the previous peak of 2.836 MMT in December 2020.

Lentil and pea production was up sharply across the Prairies in 2025, with lentil output rising by more than 38% to 3.363 MMT and peas up nearly 1 MMT from a year earlier to 3.934 MMT.

Canaryseed stocks…both on-farm and in commercial hands…came in at 265,000 tonnes, up 45.6% from a year earlier, while chickpea stocks jumped 84.1% to 442,000. Flax stocks were 42.3% higher at 464,000 tonnes.

Mustard stocks, at 229,000 tonnes, were up less than 1% on the year, and sunflower stocks were 2.6% higher at 194,000 tonnes.

– Canada loses jobs but unemployment rate dips… Canada unexpectedly lost 24,800 jobs in January, but the unemployment rate dipped to a 16-month low of 6.5% as fewer people looked for work, Statistics Canada indicated on Friday. Analysts had forecast a gain of 7,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 6.8%. The unemployment rate…the lowest since the 6.5% recorded in September 2024…fell across most major demographic groups, largely reflecting declines in the number of job searchers.

The Bank of Canada says the labor market is softening after the economy added a total of 181,000 new jobs from September through November. Canada created 10,100 jobs in December. The manufacturing sector lost 27,500 positions in January, most of them in the industrial heartland of Ontario, where some key industries have been hit by US tariffs.

“These trends will likely continue as…employees of US trade-exposed industries begin to leave their jobs at higher rates than employees of other industries,” said Joshua Grundleger, a director at Fitch Ratings. Overall job losses in the manufacturing, educational services and public administration sectors outweighed gains in the information, business, agriculture and utilities sectors.

The central bank held its key policy rate steady at 2.25% last week and said this was about the right level to keep inflation close to its 2% target. Money markets expect rates to stay on hold for the rest of the year.

– US farm groups push for CUSMA Renewal ahead of 2026 review… A new coalition of US farm and agricultural organizations is ramping up pressure on Washington to ensure the renewal of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA, or CUSMA as it is known in Canada) as the pact approaches its mandatory 2026 review. More than 40 farm and agri-food groups have launched the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA, highlighting the trade deal’s role as a key economic driver for American agriculture and warning that uncertainty around its future could disrupt farm planning and investment. The coalition unveiled a new website and announced an aggressive advertising campaign aimed at reinforcing the agreement’s benefits to lawmakers and the administration.

“USMCA is one of President (Donald) Trump’s signature achievements and one that has significantly propelled the ag economy,” said coalition spokesperson Bryan Goodman. While acknowledging that targeted improvements may be needed, Goodman said the group’s core message is that renewal of the agreement is critical for farmers across the country.

The agreement was signed in 2018 during the first presidential term of Trump and came into force in 2020, updating the North American Free Trade Agreement. Since implementation, USMCA has expanded US agricultural exports to Canada and Mexico, provided greater certainty for cross-border trade and established clearer mechanisms for resolving disputes among the three countries.

Under the terms of the deal, the United States, Canada and Mexico must begin a formal review by July 2026. If all three agree to renew, USMCA would be extended for another 16 years, with a further review scheduled for 2032. Failure to reach consensus could trigger annual consultations or ultimately lead to the agreement’s expiration in 2036…an outcome farm groups say would inject damaging uncertainty into the sector.

The Trump administration has indicated that renewal is not automatic, though officials have acknowledged the agreement’s economic success. Goodman said that ambiguity is precisely what concerns producers.

– China faces higher prices if buying US soybeans… Chinese soybean importers face much higher costs to bring in an additional 8 MMT of US cargoes, whose purchase US President Donald Trump has said Beijing is weighing, as rival Brazilian supplies are far cheaper in their peak export season. Still, Beijing could order purchases by state grain companies to please Trump ahead of his China visit planned for April, as it eyes other concessions from Washington.

“Is there a market logic at the moment for China procuring a bunch more US soybeans, just as Brazil’s harvest comes in? No,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China. “But could it smooth the path for a more productive state visit by Trump in April? Perhaps.”

China is considering buying 20 MMT of US soybeans in the current season, Trump said after talks on last week with President Xi Jinping. China’s state-run Sinograin and COFCO have already bought about 12 MMT of US soybeans since October trade talks with the US, paying close to $100 million more than they would for Brazilian beans, based on market prices. And rising prices of US soybeans in the past week have further widened the price gap with Brazilian cargoes, which would force Chinese buyers to shell out far higher premiums than they have paid since November…$1.00/bu or more.

– South American weather, quality issues could be next market issue… South America could soon add more fuel to the recent rally in grain prices. Market analyst Michael Cordonnier with the Soybean and Corn Advisor says there s momentum from President Trump s announcement that China plans to up its commitment of US soybean purchases. That s been the impetus for the recent price increase for soybeans. But now the market is paying attention to the dryness in Argentina, and just most recently the quality issues for soybeans out in Mato Grosso (Brazil).

He says Brazilian soybean harvest progress is around 16% done, and there are reports of poor seed quality in the north. Due to excessive rainfall. Some of those areas in Mato Grosso (Brazil s largest soy production state) had over 20 inches of rainfall in January, and the farmers have struggled to get the soybeans harvested. Cordonnier added as much as 30% of the soybeans being harvested are moldy, broken, shriveled, and high moisture. And some farmers are saying the grain elevator won t take it, it s not quality enough to send for export.

Cordonnier says the Mato Grosso Institute of Agriculture announced it is considering reducing its latest soybean production estimate.

Cordonnier has so far left his 2025/26 Brazil soybean crop production estimate unchanged at 179.0 MMT, with a neutral-to-slightly higher bias. He also left his 2025/26 Brazil corn production estimate unchanged this
past week at 137.0 MMT, with a neutral bias.

Cordonnier lowered his Argentine soybean production estimate by 1.0 MMT, to 48.0 MMT, with a lower bias. The conditions in Argentina continue to deteriorate under sunny skies, warm temperatures and a lack of rain, he said. For Argentine corn production, Cordonnier lowered his estimate by 1.0 MMT this week, to 53.0 MMT, with a lower bias.

– Russia’s early crop condition data signals good 2026 harvest… The share of Russian crops in normal condition as of Feb 5 stood at 97% compared to 87% in the same period of 2025, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said on Thursday, with analysts suggesting the data signaled a good harvest. Extreme weather, especially in the bread basket southern regions, affected the harvest in 2025 in Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter.

SovEcon’s consultancy head Andrei Sizov said there were worries in January about the cold spell that had hit some areas, but the cold snap did not reach the southern regions and temperatures were now rising. “It can be said with confidence that only 3% of the crops are likely in poor condition. This is below the five-year average and significantly better than last year,” Sizov said. Sizov added that heavy snowfalls across Russia implied that there will be enough moisture for winter crops when vegetation begins in spring.

Patrushev also told a government meeting that Russia’s 2025 grain crop stood at 142 MMT, including the crop from Russia-controlled territories of Ukraine. This figure included 93 MMT of wheat. The 2025 grain harvest was the third largest in history, Patrushev said, a 9% increase compared to 2024 but below the 2023 historical record of 147 MMT.

– Canadian exporters demand solution to trade with Europe… After 10 years of almost no progress, it s time to fix the barriers that block Canadian agricultural exports to Europe. Politicians need to step up and exert the necessary political will so that the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) delivers benefits for Canadian farmers. This needs to be a priority for our governments…to make the trade agreements that we have, actually work, said Cam Dahl, general manager of the Manitoba Pork Council. Canada needs to put additional resources into fighting back against unjustified regulations, like the Europeans, that are blocking our trade.

For five years or longer, agricultural groups across Canada have pushed the federal government to do something, anything, about the unbalanced trade in agri-food commodities with Europe. Despite the existence of CETA, agricultural trade flows mostly in one direction across the Atlantic Ocean.

In 2024, using Statistics Canada and U.S. Department of Agriculture data:

* Canada imported $220 million of pork from Europe, while exports to the EU were $5.7 million.
* Beef imports from Europe were $103 million, while Canada exported $14 million.
* The EU exported 17,200 tonnes of cheese to Canada, close to the 17,700 tonnes permitted in Europe s tariff rate quota for cheese within CETA.

Meanwhile, Canada has a tariff rate quota that allows large volumes beef and pork into the EU with zero tariffs. However, Canadian exports are well below those volumes because of non-tariff trade irritants. In pork, one barrier is trichinosis, a parasitical disease. Canada s pork industry has been free of trichinosis for years, but the EU insists that Canada test shipments of pork for the disease, increasing the cost of exports.

This sort of obstruction has gone on too long, considering CETA was signed more than 10 years ago, Dahl said.

– Brazil-China considering trade deal… In a significant shift, Brazil is considering pushing for a partial trade agreement between the Mercosur bloc and China, Reuters reported, citing senior Brazilian government officials. Brazil had previously vetoed formal talks with Beijing due to fears a surge in Chinese imports would harm domestic manufacturers. But with Beijing seeking deeper commercial ties, and the US imposing waves of tariffs on Brazil, the government of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is now reconsidering its stance, the report said. Mercosur is made up of Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay, with Bolivia soon to become a full member.

The report noted that a joint statement issued during Uruguayan President Yamandu Orsi’s visit to Beijing to meet with President Xi Jinping last week said they hoped free trade negotiations between China and Mercosur could begin “as soon as possible.”

While a formal, comprehensive deal remains a long way off, two Brazilian government officials told the news agency that a partial Mercosur-China deal is now viewed as a plausible longer-term outcome, spurred by US tariffs on goods from trading partners that have disrupted global commerce and reshaped trade alliances.

Brazil over the past decade has pushed aside the US as China s top soybean supplier, a move that was accelerated after the 2018 trade war during President Donald Trump s first term. Brazil was the primary beneficiary of China s temporary 2025 boycott of US soybean purchases.

– Indian farm unions, opposition vow to fight India-US trade pact… The United States and India have released an interim framework for a trade deal, paving the way for an agreement that would lower tariffs, reconfigure energy ties and deepen economic cooperation as both seek to realign global supply chains. The India US joint statement suggested that New Delhi pushed back against Washington’s efforts to broadly open its agricultural market. However, India has agreed to lower trade barriers on some farm goods, drawing criticism from farmers and opposition parties.

Indian farm unions and opposition parties have called for nationwide protests against the new India-US trade framework, saying it risks hurting the farm sector by allowing more US imports, although the government says key staples are protected. The agreement has become a political flashpoint, reviving memories of the 2020 21 farm law protests, when the government was forced to repeal three laws aimed at deregulating agricultural markets.

The government has defended the pact, saying farmers’ interests are protected by excluding imports of grains such as rice, wheat, corn and dairy products, while growers of basmati rice, fruits, spices, coffee and tea would gain duty-free access to the US market.

Farm groups say the pact puts Indian farmers at a disadvantage. “We are worried about the India-US trade deal, as it would hurt Indian farmers, who are far more vulnerable than their American counterparts,” said Rakesh Tikait, a farmers’ leader. He said US farmers have larger landholdings and receive higher subsidies, while Indian farmers also face crop losses from weak processing infrastructure and rising cultivation costs.

The Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM), a coalition of more than 100 farm groups, has called for protests on February 12, saying the deal would allow imports of subsidized US farm products that could depress domestic prices and hurt rural incomes. “We will not allow the government to open up the Indian farm sector for American companies,” SKM national secretary Purushottam Sharma said, adding that lower tariffs on crude soyoil, currently taxed at about 16.5%, would hurt domestic oilseed producers.

– Carney announces new EV buyer incentives, scraps sales mandate… Prime Minister Mark Carney late last week unveiled Canada s new plan to bolster the automotive sector and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, announcing incentives to buy electric vehicles and new regulations for tailpipe emissions. The changes, coupled with the elimination of EV sales mandates and new investments in a country-wide EV charging network, are the main planks in Canada s efforts to bolster its auto industry and ease into electrification at a time of trade upheaval.

Canada s new government is fundamentally transforming our economy…from one reliant on a single trade partner, to one that is stronger, more independent, and more resilient to global shocks, Carney said. We are making strategic decisions and generational investments to build a strong Canadian auto sector, where Canadian workers build the cars of the future.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 1,206.95 points higher on Friday to settle at 50,115.67…topping the 50,000 milestone for the first time ever. The S&P 500 gained 133.90 points on Friday to close at 6,932.30, while Canada s TSX Composite index rallied 476 points higher to 32,471.

Early Monday, the March Dow Jones Futures are down 135 points. Global markets are mixed in cautious trading this morning amid some optimism about a rebound in US chip stocks and other beaten-down assets after a volatile week. Wall Street futures were in the red after major North American markets closed sharply up on Friday. But TSX futures are pointed higher again this morning. European stock markets were mixed to leaning higher overnight, while Asian markets were higher.

Big gains like the ones we saw last Friday can be just as unsettling as big losses,” Ipek Ozkardeskaya, senior analyst at Swissquote, wrote in a note. Both signal markets navigating agitated waters, where moves may not prove sustainable.

The March US Dollar Index is down 0.686 at 96.820. The Canadian dollar strengthened against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 73.49 US cents.

March crude oil futures are down $0.25 at US $63.30/barrel. Oil prices have slipped slightly lower as fears of a Middle East conflict eased after the US and Iran pledged to continue indirect talks about Tehran s nuclear program, calming worries about potential supply disruptions.

Grain Markets

Chicago soybean futures are trading 1 to 4 cents/bu lower this morning…a modest reprieve from last week s surge higher. Bean futures fell off the intraday highs by 20+ cents into Friday s close, with contracts closing 2 to 3 cents higher. Mar beans got up to $11.38/bu on Friday before hitting chart resistance and seeing buying exhaustion and profit-taking to end at $11.15, up just 3 cents on the day. Some farmer selling may have also pulled soybeans off the highs. March beans still finished last week up a strong 51 cents, but upward momentum has stalled.

Trump talk on social media last week that China will buy a while lot more US soybeans in the immediate weeks/months ahead (claimed 8 MMT) is being met with some trade skepticism, with the bluster now kinda played out…unless China does in fact step up to buy US beans instead of much cheaper South American soy supply.

Soymeal futures are down $2 to $3/ton this morning after finishing Friday steady to $1 higher, and March contract gaining $10/ton last week. Soyoil futures are 35 to 62 points higher this morning after losing 32 to 33 points on Friday in the nearbys, with Mar bean oil still up 182 points last week.

During Jan-Feb, soyoil futures have rallied to a six-month high…supported of late by ideas that India may buy more US bean oil after proposing to open parts of its agriculture market to cheaper US imports. India late Friday said it agreed to cut or eliminate import duties on some US agricultural products, including soyoil.

Commitment of Traders data from Friday afternoon showed a total of 11,511 contracts added to the managed money soybean futures net long position as of Feb 3, taking the position to 28,832 contracts.

Chicago corn futures are easing a penny lower this morning. The corn market posted 4 to 5 cent losses across most contracts on Friday. March was still up 2 cents last week.

CFTC data showed a total of 3,464 contracts trimmed from the spec net short position in corn futures in the week ended Feb 3. That net short stood at 68,786 contracts on that date.

Traders are monitoring conditions in South America, especially rain chances in parched Argentina, along with the first crop harvest and second crop planting paces in Brazil.

US wheat markets are mixed this morning…winter wheats are steady to 3 cents lower, while spring wheat is slightly higher on front end contracts. The US wheat complex fell lower on Friday, with contracts down across the three markets. Spring wheat was steady to 2 cents lower on Friday, with the March contract losing 8 cents on the week.

In Tuesday’s USDA reports, US wheat export estimates could rise, but are limited due to still world competition. Offsetting exports, US wheat inventories will remain the highest in six years.

Spring wheat futures continue along their months-long sideways consolidative range, as technical hurdles and ample global wheat supplies continue to stave off earnest buyer interest. However, as planting season approaches, weather and outside market forces will become a greater focus.

CANADIAN GRAIN MARKET

ICE canola futures ended a bit lower on Friday, sliding with losses in Chicago soyoil and strength in the Canadian dollar. Malaysian palm oil also suffered losses to end last week, although European rapeseed managed gains.

A Statistics Canada grain stocks report Friday pegged total nationwide canola stocks as of Dec. 31 at 15.623 MMT, slightly below the average trade guess of 15.75 MMT, but still up more than 18% from a year earlier and the largest Dec. 1 stocks level since 2019 at 16.212 MMT.

March canola dropped $2.20 on Friday to settle at $660.80/tonne, while news crop November lost $3.60 to $668.60.

For today… canola futures are posting $3 to $5/tonne gains to start this morning…being helped along by CBOT soyoil advances to six month highs. Nearby Mar canola futures are up $3.90 at $664.70/tonne right now after gaining $12.80/t last week and now up $66/t from its Dec 19 low. Next upside technical price target for Mar canola include the 200-day moving average ($667) and the November high around $670.

Canola price trend continues higher, but near-term price targets noted above should be respected and considered for possibly cash selling opportunities given Prairie cash bids are consistently over $14.00/bu everywhere and now edging up as high as $15.00/bu for deferred delivery in some locations. Call it a reward the rally with an incremental sale.

Despite some encouraging demand-related news of late…China reducing tariffs of Canadian canola starting Mar 1 and better inclusion of Canadian canola oil into the US biofuel program…there is still a lot of canola to move in 2025-26. StatCan on Friday noted in its grain stocks report, nationwide canola stocks as of Dec. 31 were seen at 15.623 MMT, up more than 18% from a year earlier and the largest end of Dec stocks level since 2019.

But we do want to keep some powder dry as export demand has increased with China and Pakistan. The domestic crush pace continues strong, and will improve further with the Cargill plant near Regina coming on stream in April. Plus…spring price seasonals tend to be price-friendly to canola in the April-June timeframe.

On the feed grains… MarketsFarm reporter Phil Franz-Warkentin writes that feed grain bids in Western Canada have shown modest strength recently, although holding rangebound overall.

Chicago corn futures dropped sharply lower on Jan 12 in response to a record-large US production estimate from the USDA. Canadian feed grains moved lower in sympathy to remain price competitive, but corn values have since recovered off their lows.

Feed barley delivered into the Lethbridge-area feedlots was trading at about $265/tonne in mid-January, with feed wheat at $270 and imported US corn $275/tonne landed. The market has been holding value over the past month as cattle on feed inventories are at seasonal highs. All three grains have gained $5/tonne from those levels by early February. Most feedlots have their Feb and Mar requirements covered. Feedlots show a $5 to $7/t carrying charge for delivery in April or May.

Solid export demand this marketing year has underpinned the domestic feed market, though the recent weekly shipping pace has slowed. Canadian Grain Commission data shows 1.545 MMT of barley exported through 26 weeks of the marketing year, up from 1.066 MMT at the same point a year ago. China remains the largest single destination for Canadian barley, with Japan and Saudi Arabia also top buyers.

Pea, lentil outlooks have some positive signals
By Glen Hallick, MarketsFarm

As pulse growers consider what to plant this spring, Chuck Penner of Leftfield Commodity Research said there is some optimism in the Canadian pulse market. Penner gave a presentation at the Saskatchewan Pulse Growers meeting in Swift Current on Feb. 4. We were looking at some pretty difficult circumstances, Penner said, referencing the trade issues Canada had with China and India over the last year, and emphasized the cyclical nature of the markets. Right now, I believe we are at the low part of the cycle, which means we will be coming up the other side. It s just a matter of timing, he said.

Penner said Canadian pulse growers had one of their biggest harvests in 2025, but not necessarily due to the most planted area in five years nor the August rains. It was the mild summer, he stated. It s the temperatures that gave us the big yields this year.

Dry Pea Production (millions of tonnes)*

2024/25 25/26 Diff(%) 26/27 Penner

2.997 3.934 +31.3 2.850 2.937

Penner cautioned that foreign competitors such as Russia also had sizeable pulse crops, producing about 5 MMT of peas alone last year. On the positive side, he said China is set to remove its 100% tariffs on Canadian pea imports come March 1. We ll see how much of an appetite they have left for peas, Penner said, noting that China s pea inventories are at 20-year lows.

Dry Pea Exports (millions of tonnes)*