Argentina emerges as new durum competitor

SASKATOON — Canadian durum growers are facing new competition in one of their key export markets but vastly reduced competition in another, says an analyst.

Argentina recently loaded a Panamax vessel with 55,000 tonnes of durum that appears to be headed for either Italy or Algeria.

If it is Italy, it will be the first time that durum from Argentina has been imported into the European Union in 10 years, according to Rossella Polito, a durum market analyst who writes the Durum Report for Black Silo Commodity Consulting and the Fryer’s Reports brand.

Italy was Canada’s third largest customer in 2021-25, according to Cereals Canada. It accounted for 17 per cent of exports during that stretch, behind Morocco’s 20 per cent and Algeria’s 24 per cent.

Why it Matters: Canada has a big durum crop to move, so any additional competition is unwelcome.

Polito said there are no official statistics on Argentina’s durum production, but the country’s total wheat production was “exceptionally high” this year.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimates the 2025-26 crop at 27.9 million tonnes, shattering the previous record of 19.8 million tonnes set in 2019-20.

Durum wheat yields were much higher than normal.

“This explains why it was possible to export an entire Panamax after such a long time,” she said in an email.

She isn’t ruling out other shipments in the current marketing campaign, although they will be sporadic.

“The details on the quality of this specific shipment are not known,” said Polito.

“However, the entire Argentine wheat crop this year recorded, on average, very low protein values and had issues on gluten content.”

Argentina’s prices have been very competitive compared to North American origins.

Polito does not think Argentina could return to exporting regularly.

The country was a major supplier of durum to Italy until the 1980s, when the crop started losing ground to soft wheat.

Production in the 1980s fell to 100,000 tonnes from about 600,000 tonnes at the end of the 1970s, when Argentina was one of the top global exporters of the crop.

These days, farmers are only planting about 75,000 acres, down from about one million acres in the late 1970s.

“However, the interest of local farmers in this crop is increasing in recent years, so if prices are attractive compared to soft wheat, an increase in the cultivated area cannot be ruled out,” said Polito.

While one Latin American country may be emerging as a competitor, another is receding.

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) is forecasting Mexico’s durum production at 672,168 tonnes, which would be 48 per cent below the five-year average.

“Domestic durum wheat supplies are expected to meet domestic demand, with limited volumes available for export,” it stated in a March 13 report.

Polito said harvest is now about 30 per cent complete, and the first yields in the key Mexican state of Sonora confirm what the FAS was predicting.

Farmers are pessimistic due to the excessively warm winter growing season. Yields have been in the four to six tons per hectare range, which is well below average.

The Mexican government estimated in December that farmers planted 286,520 acres of durum.

If that is correct, Polito’s production estimate would be 650,000 tonnes plus or minus 50,000 tonnes, which is in line with the USDA’s number.

That would be a strong recovery from last year’s historic low 384,000 tonne crop, but a far cry from the pre-2024-25 drought crops, which ranged from 1.4 million to more than two million tonnes.

“The country would therefore remain a net importer for the second consecutive year from the U.S.A. and Canada, albeit with a reduced import requirement,” said Polito.

In 2025-26, the country imported about 100,000 tonnes from the United States (as of April 16) and 90,000 tonnes from Canada (as of February).

Mexico was once a sizeable exporter of durum, shipping out 650,000 to 750,000 tonnes of the crop in the pre-drought years.

It traditionally supplies Algeria. Canada and to a lesser extent the U.S. have benefitted from Mexico’s absence from the Algerian market in 2024-25 and 2025-26.

However, Algeria is projected to have a good harvest this year, which would reduce its needs for imports, said Polito.