Canada’s durum crop smaller than anticipated

SASKATOON — Canada’s durum crop could be much smaller than the federal government is forecasting, say analysts.

Statistics Canada is estimating a crop of 5.94 million tonnes based on 6.38 million seeded acres.

LeftField Commodity Research thinks that is way too high. The firm believes many farmers switched out of durum at seeding time as prices stagnated while red spring wheat prices improved.

LeftField thinks farmers likely planted around 5.5 million acres and will produce 5.4 million tonnes of the crop, according to the recent Market Vantage report the firm wrote for Alberta Grains.

That is a common viewpoint amongst analysts.

“Many private estimates have the Canadian crop down about one million tonnes year over year on less acres and yield,” Exceed Grain Marketing stated in a recent Wheat Market Outlook report it wrote for the Saskatchewan Wheat Development Commission.

Western Producer markets desk analyst Bruce Burnett thinks the decline will be between 500,000 and one million tonnes.

He agrees that farmers likely switched more acres out of durum and into spring wheat than originally anticipated. Durum did not participate in the wheat rally that lasted for about a month and a half.

“Even now, cash prices for durum are close to spring wheat, if not at a discount, depending on what locations you’re looking at,” Burnett said in a June 4 interview.

Why it Matters: Canada might have a tough time marketing a big durum crop, considering North Africa has a bumper crop on the way.

North America’s durum crop had been under considerable stress during the initial part of the growing season.

An estimated 55 per cent of U.S. production was experiencing some level of drought as of June 2, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

However, an early-June weather system dubbed the “June Monsoon” delivered huge amounts of rain to Alberta, western Saskatchewan as well as Montana and North Dakota.

Burnett said the timing of the rainfall couldn’t have been better because it was getting bone dry in some key durum growing areas.

He doesn’t think the drought will have as profound an impact on yields as what it appeared at the end of May, but the crop is still not out of the woods. A hot and dry July could deliver another setback.

Mexico’s durum crop is under duress.

CANIMOLT estimates durum production in Sonora, Mexico’s largest wheat growing state, at 672,168 tonnes, which would be 48 per cent below the five-year average, according to a March 13 USDA report.

“Domestic durum wheat supplies are expected to meet domestic demand, with limited volumes available for export,” stated the report.

Mexico was once a sizeable exporter of durum, shipping out 650,000 to 750,000 tonnes of the crop in the pre-drought years.

Burnett said it is premature to know if North America’s durum challenges will be offset by reduced demand from North Africa.

Analysts are forecasting a bumper crop from that region of the world, which could hurt overseas import potential.

Algeria was the top market for Canadian durum in the 2021-25 period, accounting for 24 per cent of exports. Morocco was second at 20 per cent.

However, Burnett noted that the North African crop is not in the bin yet. If it rains throughout June, the quality of North Africa’s crop could turn out to be terrible, necessitating the need for substantial imports of good quality durum.

Conversely, Canadian production could be down one million tonnes, but if conditions are right at harvest, it could be a top-notch crop in terms of quality, which would greatly improve its export potential.

Another factor to consider is that Agriculture Canada is forecasting a bloated 1.45 million tonnes of carryout from Canada’s 2025-26 crop, which means North African buyers might not be overly concerned about a one million tonne drop in production in 2026-27.