Growing conditions on the Prairies are trending wetter

Too much precipitation has been a problem for many areas of Western Canada this growing season. The biggest drought concern is the Peace River region.

If you examine the percentage of normal precipitation maps published by Agriculture Canada, it’s interesting to see how the precipitation situation has evolved.

The map of what is considered the agricultural year starting last Sept. 1 up until June 22 shows the only area with less than 60 per cent of normal precipitation is the Peace River region of Alberta and British Columbia. In fact, a big chunk of that region has had less than 40 per cent.

Meanwhile, northeastern Alberta into northwestern Saskatchewan has had well above normal precipitation for that time period of nearly 10 months.

The map of growing season precipitation from April 1 to June 22 paints a somewhat different picture and is probably more relevant for predicting crop and forage potential. In this time period, northeastern Alberta and northwestern Saskatchewan are very wet at more than 1.5 times normal precipitation.

Meanwhile, south-central Saskatchewan and much of southern Manitoba had only 60 to 85 per cent of normal. Parts of southern Manitoba are below 60 per cent with some areas even below 40 per cent. Peace River is very dry at less than 40 per cent over a large area.

The 30 days leading up to June 22 were wet over much of the Prairies. High rainfall was received in Alberta, with the notable exception of the Peace River.

It was also wet along parts of the Saskatchewan-Manitoba boundary and an area north of Winnipeg where thousands of acres were reported to be under water.

While the weather has seemed cooler than normal this spring, that’s not what the temperature map shows.

From May 19 to June 15, the Agriculture Canada map shows most of the Prairie region at two to five degrees above normal. Perhaps the few hot days in May pushed the mean temperature above the norm. Most would consider June to have been largely showery and cool.

So, what does all this mean for crop production?

Drawing early conclusions is often dangerous. Conditions can swing from flood to drought quite quickly, but at this point, with the exception of the Peace River region, more production has been lost to excess moisture than not enough moisture.

Seeding was significantly delayed and occurred over a much longer time frame than usual. It would be reasonable to expect a similarly long harvest period.

If the wet bias continues, July thunderstorms could be common, which could lead to frequent hailstorms. Lush crops mean increased use of fungicide to control diseases.

On the other hand, I haven’t heard anyone talking about grasshopper issues, and gopher damage appears to be minimal. All the bother about emergency registration of strychnine for gopher control may have been wasted energy.

With the exception of the Peace region, recent rain would seem to indicate that no widespread forage supply issues are imminent. The feed supply should support cattle herd expansion.

Of course, July could easily turn hot and dry. A couple weeks of temperatures above 30 C or even 35 C could substantially alter the outlook. With canola flowering later than normal in many areas, there’s greater risk of that coinciding with hot weather, and that isn’t good for yield potential.

Generally, though, rain makes grain, so crop potential, while variable, looks pretty good overall, depending on how the weeks ahead unfold.