High heat’s return and Ukraine’s shipping idea to weigh on grain market Friday

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Red River Farm Network president Don Wick described wheat market movements as “going into gyrations” on Friday, July 24.

That’s while talking with Randy Martinson, president of Martinson Ag Risk Management during the Agweek Market Wrap.

Martinson concurred that the wheat market dynamics turned around after strength from the escalation in war between Ukraine and Russia as well as the continued war with Iran was seen earlier in the week and the previous week. When Ukraine came out with a hope to work out a deal for safe passage of grain through the Black Sea on Friday, the market retreated.

“If that was the case, then that kind of takes care of our logistics problem as far as moving wheat and getting wheat availability,” Martinson said of the possibility of a ceasefire. “And you got to remember, you know, Ukraine and Russia are, you know, 30% of the world’s exports come from those two countries.”

Wick pointed out that, as of Friday morning, it remained unclear if Russia had any intentions of getting on board. Martinson did not see Russia agreeing to anything that would help fund Ukraine’s war efforts.

The change came at a time when the markets were looking a bit tired anyway.

“This was just something that helped push it over the edge to see some selling come into play,” Martinson said.

The conflict with Iran has now sent crude oil over $100 a barrel, which brings about concerns of increased inflation. Martinson referred to crude oil as the market that can rise all boats including fertilizer, chemical and transportation costs.

Wick touched on the fact that 10-year treasuries saw a bump this week to their highest levels since January 2025. Martinson said things are pointing towards interest rate hikes rather than reductions.

Another major factor at play is the amount of heat hitting the upper Plains. Martinson said North Dakota has already seen 16 days in the 90s, which is a big number, but within the next 10-day forecast is the call for eight more days in the 90s and some reaching 100 degrees.

“So we’re going to be looking at the possibility of 24 days (above 90 degrees), and we’re looking at the crop also in a critical crop development stage. A lot of the corn is pollinating,” Martinson said. “The sunflowers, the soybeans are are flowering and setting pods. So this is a big time for where weather could really impact the potential yield of the crop.”

Not to be outdone, the Trump administration announced new tariffs to come into play on Friday after the expiration of other temporary tariffs. These tariffs of about 10-12%, on about 60 different countries are said to be related to concerns over working conditions and forced labor.

Cattle report

Cattle prices have taken a hit in recent weeks. The USDA’s Cattle Inventory report was expected Friday afternoon. That report along with a Cattle on Feed report could send that market in a friendlier direction.

“Right now everybody’s, the anticipation is these reports will be friendly to the cattle,” Martinson said. “You know that we’re not seeing herd expansion, you know, we’re not seeing heifer retention.”

Recent losses have come despite the fundamentals of a low cattle inventory, high demand and strong cash. Demand could slip further as economic uncertainty and inflation concerns continue.

Looking ahead, Martinson said as the calendar moves to the last week of July, weather remains a main focus as crops are in major development stages. Those talks, if there are any, between Ukraine and Russia could further catapult wheat one way of another.

(The Agweek Market Wrap is sponsored by Gateway Building Systems.)]]>