New study: China tariffs cost U.S. ag $14.9 billion in lost exports
China’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods wiped out an estimated $14.9 billion in export sales over a 12-month period, according to a new North Dakota State University analysis, with soybeans taking the biggest hit.
The report, A One-Year Retrospective Assessment of China’s 2025/26 Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Exports, found that from March 2025 through February 2026, U.S. agricultural exports to China fell sharply after Beijing imposed new retaliatory tariffs tied to fentanyl-related trade actions and reciprocal tariff escalations.
“China’s retaliatory tariffs reduced U.S. agricultural exports to China by an estimated $14.9 billion on an annualized basis over the one-year window from March 2025 through February 2026,” the report states.
Researchers Shawn Arita, Sandro Steinbach, and Xiting Zhuang said soybeans alone accounted for roughly half of the losses.
“Soybeans account for approximately $6.8 billion, or roughly half of the total,” the study found, while “beef and cotton each contribute about $1.3 billion, tree nuts about $964 million, and corn another $333 million.”
The report noted that the losses from the latest trade dispute surpassed the damage seen during the 2018-19 U.S.-China trade war under President Donald Trump’s first administration.
The annualized trade losses for the 2018/19 round, measured on the same basis, were approximately $10.6 billion; the 2025/26 figure of $14.9 billion is roughly 41 percent larger.
According to the study, U.S. agricultural exports to China dropped from $24.5 billion in 2024 to just $8.4 billion in 2025, the steepest year-on-year drop in the series, and the lowest annual reading since 2007.
The downturn stretched across multiple commodities. Soybean exports fell from $12.6 billion in 2024 to $3.1 billion in 2025, while several categories, including corn, wheat, cotton, and tree nuts, declined by 80 percent or more.
Researchers emphasized that the losses measured exports specifically to China, not total U.S. agricultural exports globally.
The $14.9 billion figure is the size of the China-specific export loss, not a measure of net harm to U.S. farmers, which is smaller after accounting for redirected sales.
Some U.S. exports were redirected to other markets during the period, with shipments increasing to destinations including South Korea, Colombia, Vietnam, and the European Union.
The report also highlighted which states faced the greatest exposure based on production concentration. Iowa, California, and Illinois each faced roughly $1.2 billion in estimated exposure, followed by Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, Missouri, Indiana, South Dakota, Ohio, Arkansas, and North Dakota.
Despite the losses, researchers noted recent negotiations between the U.S. and China could improve trade prospects moving forward. A May 2026 framework agreement included new Chinese commitments to purchase U.S. agricultural products and resume access for some American beef and poultry exports.
The White House announced China committed to purchase at least $17 billion of U.S. agricultural products annually from 2026 through 2028, in addition to a pledge to buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually. The NDSU report said those commitments could eventually push annual U.S. agricultural exports to China back into the $28 billion to $30 billion range if fully implemented.
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