The Old Farmer’s Almanac is here with its winter 2026-27 forecast

Winter may still feel a long way off, but some of the biggest clues about the season ahead are already taking shape.

For winter 2026-27,  the Old Farmer’s Almanac forecasters are watching a familiar mix of ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns, solar activity, and so-called polar vortex conditions. One signal in particular is getting plenty of attention: El Niño.

Here’s what could be shaping the winter ahead — and what it might mean for snow, cold, and storm tracks across North America.

El Niño is a major player

One of the biggest signals heading into winter is El Niño, a climate pattern associated with warmer-than-usual waters in the tropical Pacific.

Why does that matter?

The Pacific Ocean has a huge influence on weather across North America. Changes in ocean temperatures can affect the jet stream — the fast-moving current of air that helps steer storms across the continent.

During an El Niño winter, shifts in the jet stream can change where storms travel, where precipitation falls, and which areas see warmer or colder conditions.

That doesn’t mean El Niño determines the entire winter. Far from it. But it can give forecasters an important clue about the overall pattern.

This year is even projected to likely become a “Super” El Niño season, which some experts expect could tilt the odds in favor of more rain than snow going into the winter months.

“When you get into fall and we start thinking about harvest time, we tend to watch for a much more energetic subtropical jet stream. It’s the one that leaves Hawaii, goes toward California, and then races across the southern tier of the United States,” said Eric Snodgrass, Senior Science Fellow with Nutrien Agronomy. “When those happen, we tend to generate quite a bit more storm systems — like low-pressure systems. And it tends to make a wetter fall coast to coast. …

“Now, there are exceptions,” he added. “The upper Midwest, parts of the Great Lakes, and the northwestern United States don’t tend to see that benefit.”

The sun could play a role, too

Another factor being watched is solar activity.

Solar Cycle 25 peaked in 2024, but sunspot activity remains relatively elevated. Historically, periods of higher solar activity have sometimes been associated with warmer temperatures on average.

Still, solar activity is just one ingredient in a much bigger weather recipe. It works alongside ocean and atmospheric patterns rather than determining winter conditions on its own.

Ocean patterns help steer storms

The tropical Pacific isn’t the only part of the ocean that matters.

Forecasters also keep an eye on longer-term patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These patterns can influence temperatures, moisture, and storm tracks across North America.

There’s also the Indian Ocean Dipole, which can affect atmospheric circulation and potentially influence the Pacific jet stream.

Put them together, and these ocean patterns can help determine whether certain regions end up stormier, wetter, drier, warmer, or colder than usual.

And then there’s the polar vortex

Few winter weather terms get as much attention as the “polar vortex.”

Despite the dramatic name, the polar vortex isn’t a winter storm. It’s a large circulation of very cold air that normally sits high in the atmosphere around the Arctic. When that circulation weakens, stretches, or shifts, Arctic air can sometimes plunge much farther south. That can set the stage for sharp cold snaps across parts of Canada and the United States.

The big question for winter 2026-27 is whether the combination of atmospheric and ocean patterns will make those southward pushes of Arctic air more likely.

And remember: Not every blast of cold air is caused by the polar vortex. Changes in the jet stream and tropical weather patterns can produce cold outbreaks, too.

So, what could winter look like?

There isn’t one single climate signal that can tell us exactly what winter will bring.

El Niño may be one of the strongest clues, but forecasters also have to consider ocean patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific, solar activity, upper-atmosphere winds, and the behavior of the polar vortex.

That means the winter story can vary considerably by region.

Some areas may experience a wetter or snowier season, while others could see stretches of milder weather. And even during an overall mild winter, a disrupted weather pattern can still deliver a memorable blast of Arctic cold.

The key is to look at the entire atmospheric setup rather than any one headline-making factor.

By late summer, the broad outlines of the coming winter are beginning to emerge—but they’re not set in stone.

El Niño, ocean temperatures, the jet stream, solar activity, and Arctic circulation will continue evolving as fall approaches.

That’s why winter forecasts become especially interesting as we get closer to the season: the big climate signals may provide the clues, but the way those signals interact ultimately determines where the cold, snow, and storms show up.

For now, El Niño is one of the biggest patterns to watch as winter 2026-27 approaches.

The post The Old Farmer’s Almanac is here with its winter 2026-27 forecast appeared first on AGDAILY.