AM Market Report – May 25, 2026

GOOD MORNING…HERE IS YOUR MORNING MARKET NEWS

OVERNIGHT GRAIN TRADE

ICE canola futures are trading $6 to $8/tonne lower to start this morning. US farm commodity markets are closed Monday for the US Memorial Day holiday, while Canadian markets remain open.

July canola futures are down $7.00 this morning at $743.20/tonne. That s pushing down against a $13.90/tonne gain for the week ended Friday (May 22). Canola futures seem to be putting in seasonal tops in May, with the front month contract dropping below its 20-day moving average ($750) and eying a test down to its 50-day ($739).

Chartwise… the primary technical trend remains bullish. However, momentum indicators are increasingly flashing toppy cautionary signals. Both old crop spot cash sales and some start to new crop forward contracting for fall delivery appear warranted.

Renewable fuel demand remains overall supportive for vegetable oil markets, which continues to support our canola seed market.

But with crude oil selling down this morning, EU rapeseed futures are down pretty hard overnight along with our canola…also appearing to being pulled down from their seasonal highs. Malaysian palm oil futures were slightly weaker overnight…continuing to ebb lower since peaking at the start of April. Again…US soy markets are closed today for holiday.

Seeding across Western Canada continues to lag, but is gaining momentum now.

Statistics Canada reported the April canola crush at 1.052 MMT. That s down 4.1% from the 1.097 MMT crushed in March, although 14.5% above the April 2025 crush of 919,345 tonnes.

Updated monthly supply/demand estimates from Agriculture Canada last week pegged new crop canola ending stocks at a fairly tight 1.319 MMT, up from the April estimate of 1.064 MMT, but still well below the slightly downwardly revised 2025-26 ending stocks of 2.72 MMT.

US markets closed for the US Memorial Day long weekend

US grain markets saw volatile trade last week on the roller coaster of news regarding the US trade framework with China. A week ago, the White House released a fact sheet stating China had agreed to buy $17 billion of US ag goods annually for 2026 (prorated), 2027 and 2028. This was in addition to the 25 MMT of annual soybean purchases through 2028 agreed to in the October 30 meeting.

But there are suspicions developing that Chicago soybean and corn futures markets may have already made their seasonal highs this month. The market had rallied in anticipation of the US trade framework being struck with China and when there was no initial confirmation of ag purchase agreements it sold off.

Beyond that, the US ag marketplace seemed disappointed with the White House fact sheet…got everyone excited at first until they read it, then realized it didn t mean all that much. It s positive the two countries are talking, but bad news is there is no enforceability with the framework or purchases.

Soy/Corn markets have retraced this month under the highs…and may continue to retract until something changes. US markets need to see China buy something…the longer they wait in doing so, the more concerned the bulls will get, and then markets fall under their own weight. China knows how to play this game…they ve been doing it for a long time.

That being said…a deteriorating technical chart picture could change quickly if China does outwardly start buying US ag products in earnest. At that point, I would have to reconsider my position. Otherwise, the only other thing that could push ag markets to new highs would be a weather problem.

Latest on US-Iran War

Iran and the United States played down hopes for an imminent breakthrough in the three-month-old war on Monday, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US would give diplomacy every chance to succeed before exploring alternatives. There was a “pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait, get the strait open, enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter, and hopefully we can pull it off,” Rubio said.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that Iran was negotiating an end to the war and was not currently discussing nuclear issues. The spokesperson added that a framework had been reached but no one could say an agreement between the US and Iran was imminent. The potential memorandum of understanding contained no specific details about the management of the Strait of Hormuz, which belongs to the coastal countries, he said.

On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that the US blockade on Iranian ships in the Strait of Hormuz would “remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified, and signed. “Both sides must take their time and get it right,” he added.

Trump raised expectations of an imminent deal on Saturday when he said Washington and Tehran had “largely negotiated” a memorandum of understanding on a peace agreement that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Monday that Iran would not take tolls for passage through the vital waterway, but added that it was “normal for services provided to require a price.”

Before the conflict, the strait had carried a fifth of global shipments of oil and liquefied natural gas.

The two sides remain at odds on several difficult issues, such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s war in Lebanon with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia and Tehran’s demands for the lifting of sanctions and the release of tens of billions of dollars of Iranian oil revenues frozen in foreign banks.

In Other News

– Saskatchewan seeding behind normal…  Although seeding advanced across Saskatchewan during the week ended last Monday (May 18), weather conditions remained far from ideal as strong winds, rain, and snow slowed fieldwork and left overall planting progress well behind normal. Thursday s weekly crop report showed province-wide seeding reached 29% complete as of a week ago Monday, up 13 points from a week earlier, but still trailing the five-year average of 55% and the 10-year average of 52%. Last year at this time, 72% of the Saskatchewan crop was already in the ground.

The southwest region remains the furthest advanced at 55% seeded as of last Monday, followed by the southeast at 41%. Progress was slower in other parts of the province, with the west-central region at 30%, the northwest at 16%, the east-central region at 11%, and the northeast at just 3% complete.

Pulse crops continue to lead seeding activity, with field peas and lentils 53% planted and chickpeas at 40%. Among cereal crops, durum is the most advanced at 49% seeded, followed by barley at 27%, spring wheat at 25%, canary seed at 15%, and oats at 11%. Mustard leads oilseed planting at 30% complete, while flax is 21% seeded and canola sits at 15%.

Recent precipitation significantly improved soil moisture conditions across the province. Cropland topsoil moisture was rated 27% surplus and 67% adequate, compared to 13% surplus and 70% adequate the previous week. Only 1% of cropland is considered very short of moisture.

– Alberta seeding progress also behind normal… Cool, wet, and windy weather continued to slow spring fieldwork across Alberta over the past week, leaving provincial seeding progress behind normal despite strong advances in southern areas of the province. The weekly Alberta crop report on Friday showed the planting of all crops at 53% complete as of Tuesday (May 19), below both the five-year average of 61% and the 10-year average of 59%.

The South region remains far ahead of the rest of the province, with major crops 80% planted (spring wheat, oats, barley, canola, and peas) and all crops nearly 79% complete. Central Alberta was 59% seeded, while progress slowed considerably farther north due to excess moisture, cool temperatures, frost events, and persistent winds. Major crop seeding was only 36% complete in the North East and 33% complete in both the North West and Peace regions.

Spring wheat and dry peas continue to lead seeding activity provincially, with 66% and 70% planted, respectively. Durum was nearly 78% seeded, driven largely by strong progress in southern Alberta, while barley was 55% complete. Canola and oats lagged behind, at 31% and 23% seeded respectively, reflecting delays in many regions.

Crop emergence across Alberta was estimated at 13%, still below the five-year average of 20%. Early-seeded spring cereals are generally in the emergence to one-to-three leaf stage, while fall-seeded crops have advanced to tillering and early stem elongation. Winter crops were rated 63% good-to-excellent.

Moisture conditions across Alberta remain highly variable. Most regions received light to moderate precipitation during the week ended last Tuesday, although parts of the Peace region saw heavier rainfall, while some southern and central areas remained relatively dry. Provincially, surface moisture was rated 67% good to excellent, slightly above the long-term average, although conditions varied sharply by region. The Peace region reported the strongest moisture profile, with nearly 87% rated good/excellent and 7% excessive. In contrast, the Central region continued to struggle with dryness, with over 37% of surface moisture rated poor to fair.

Producers are hoping warmer temperatures and more consistent rainfall will improve emergence, support forage growth, and allow seeding progress to accelerate in the weeks ahead, the report said.

– Canola crush down 4.1% in April; Still above last year… The Canadian canola crush fell in April compared to the previous month but was still well above last year. Statistics Canada reported Friday the April crush at 1.052 MMT. That was down 4.1% from the 1.097 MMT crushed in March although 14.5% above the April 2025 crush of 919,345 tonnes.

The marketing year-to-date 2025-26 crush (August to April) now stands at 9.215 MMT, 5.2% above the same period a year earlier. As of the end of April, the cumulative crush for the current marketing year represented 76% of Agriculture Canada s full year projection of a record 12.1 MMT…basically on par with last year when the annual crush totaled 11.412 MMT.

Ag Canada revised its 2025-26 canola crush estimate 100,000 tonnes higher in updated monthly supply/demand estimates released last week. The new crop canola crush is forecast at another new record high of 13 MMT, unchanged from the government s April projection.

Cargill officially cut the ribbon on its long-awaited canola processing plant in Regina last week. The plant is expected to process up to 1 MMT of canola annually.

– Green pea prices declining, yellows flat… Green pea prices in Western Canada are under pressure, while yellow peas have shown little movement, says Karlee Stanhope, senior grain broker for Johnston s Grain working out of Welwyn, Sask…reporting green pea prices at between $8.50 to $9/bu amid quiet trade. Meanwhile, yellow peas are going for a dollar less.

Statistics Canada data showed that Canada exported 341,000 tonnes of peas in March, compared to around 190,000 tonnes in February due to additional Chinese purchases after tariffs on Canadian peas were lifted. China, Canada s top buyer that month, bought 154,100 tonnes in March with approximately 95% being yellow peas.

However, Stanhope said the war in Iran is causing logistical issues in exporting both varieties. It s harder to find a place (to ship to). So there aren t as many outlets, she said.

Canada is expected to seed 3.08 million acres of dry peas this year, 174,000 less than in 2025, Statistics Canada said. Meanwhile, production is projected to decline by nearly 1 MMT to near 2.95 MMT in 2026. Stanhope said peas are facing competition from increased acreage of other crops, including canola, flax and chickpeas. Some producers aren t going to (seed) peas again because the market is quiet right now, she added. (Prices will) depend on how seeding goes and what kind of weather we get and whatnot, but I can t see them going up right now.

Western Canadian green peas lost 50 cents over the past week and delivered bids ranged from $7.50 to $9.50/bu as of May 20, Prairie Ag Hotwire reported. Yellow peas were steady at $7 to $8.55/bu.

– Smaller German wheat crop, larger rapeseed harvest in 2026… Germany’s 2026 wheat crop of all types will fall 2.5% on the year to around 22.57 MMT, the country’s association of farm cooperatives DRV said in its third harvest estimate. It forecast Germany s harvest of winter rapeseed, used for vegetable oil and biodiesel production, will rise 4.3% on the year to 4.144 MMT. Germany is the European Union’s second largest wheat producer and one of the bloc s leading rapeseed producers.

The association has said increased fertilizer costs following the US-Iran war are unlikely to impact the 2026 harvest, with most German farmers having bought fertilizer in advance. But it was concerned about the impact on the 2027 harvest if fertilizer costs remain high.

– Argentina to gradually reduce soy, corn taxes… Argentina, a top global supplier of grains, will steadily reduce its export taxes on its biggest agricultural exports throughout the next two years, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said. Export taxes on soybean exports, currently at 24%, will be cut on a monthly basis throughout 2027, reaching 21% at the end of next year and 15% by the end of 2028. Taxes on soybean oil and meal will be reduced proportionally. Each month of 2027 will see a 0.25 percentage point cut to the soybean export tax, speeding up to 0.5 percentage points in 2028, he added. He did not give more information for the reductions regarding soy products.

Export taxes on Argy corn, now at 8.5%, will be reduced quarterly by 0.25 percentage points through 2027, and 0.5 percentage points every three months of 2028. They will reach 7.5% at the end of next year and 5.5% by the end of 2028. Argentina’s government also announced a cut on export taxes for wheat.

Argentine President Javier Milei vowed to eliminate export taxes on the agricultural sector, a key source of tax revenue but a measure strongly opposed by farmers and agribusiness companies.

– EU suspends duties on fertilizers to ease impact of Hormuz crisis on farmers… The EU will temporarily lift customs duties on key nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and ammonia for one year to mitigate the knock-on effects of the Iran war, the Council of the EU said on Friday. Global fertiliser prices have jumped following the near total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow shipping route along Iran’s coast through which around one-third of global fertiliser trade passes. While the EU does not depend on the nitrogen-based fertilisers, namely urea, ?produced in the Middle East, prices for all types of fertilizers have risen as countries race to source alternatives. The suspension will not apply to fertilizer products imported from Russia or Belarus, the Council statement said.

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization warned last month that a prolonged blockade could trigger an agrifood catastrophe.

– US Cattle on Feed surprise… Cattle on feed in the United States as of May 1 were up 2% from a year ago, exceeding the average estimate for a 1.6% increase and marking the first year-over-year rise in 18 months. USDA said April placements rose 6% versus estimates for a 3.4% increase. Marketings fell 10% versus forecasts for a decline of 9.3%.

– India sends largest-ever trade delegation to Canada… Indian Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal is in Canada (May 25-27) with the largest Indian trade and investment delegation to ever visit ANY country. The delegation includes “representatives from energy, infrastructure, technology, manufacturing, investment and innovation sectors,” according to Prashant Srivastava, president of the Toronto-based Indo-Canada Chamber of Commerce (ICCC). This is not a “routine diplomatic engagement.” Srivastava added that Canada s critical minerals and monetary reserves, coupled with India s 1.4-billion-strong consumer market, offers opportunities for businesses on both sides.

When Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited New Delhi in March, the two countries signed agreements covering critical minerals, clean energy co-operation and a landmark uranium supply deal worth $1.9 billion. Ottawa and Delhi also relaunched negotiations for a free trade agreement. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that the aim was to realize “the full potential of economic co-operation” and boost bilateral trade. Goyal s Canada trip is expected to catalyze trade talks between the two countries with serious intent to make concrete advancement in the negotiations” on the Canada-India Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement, known as CEPA.

All of this seemed impossible just a year ago. Canada-India relations hit a historic low in 2023, after then-prime minister Justin Trudeau publicly alleged the Indian government s involvement in the killing of Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar near Vancouver. Both sides called back diplomatic staff, trade talks froze and uncertainty loomed over economic ties.

When Carney succeeded Trudeau last year, things changed. In light of US President Donald Trump s tariff wars, Carney called India a “natural partner” during a visit to Mumbai in February 2026.

– Mexico, EU to sign stalled trade deal… Mexico and the European Union are set to sign a long-stalled free trade agreement as they seek to decrease dependence on the US and partially insulate themselves from US President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The accord, which they reached broad agreement on in 2025 but have delayed signing, expands a Mexico-EU trade accord from 2000, which covered only industrial goods. The new pact adds services, government procurement, digital trade, investment and farm produce.

Mexico s President Claudia Sheinbaum, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa are to sign the deal on Friday in Mexico City in their first summit in over a decade.

“This summit means more than trade; it’s a geopolitical statement,” Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said on Thursday in Mexico City ahead of the signing. Both sides want to diversify their exports away from the US.

Outside Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points on Friday to close at 50,580, while the S&P 500 ended up 28 points at 7,473. Canada s S&P/TSX composite stock index gained 62 points on Friday to close at 34,471.

Global stock markets are on the rise this morning as signs Iran and the US were negotiating an end to their conflict eased concerns about inflation and a global economic slowdown. But we have heard this theme many times before, with little ultimately achieved. Will this time be any different?

US stock markets are officially closed for the Memorial Day holiday today, but electronic trade is ongoing, boosting June Dow Jones index futures 448 points higher to 51,110. TSX futures are following sentiment higher.

Markets are rapidly transitioning from pricing geopolitical fear toward pricing a potential peace dividend as Hormuz reopening expectations pressure oil and the US dollar lower, analyst Stephen Innes said in a commentary.

The June US Dollar Index is down 0.291 at 98.895. The Canadian dollar is up slightly against its US counterpart…currently quoted at 72.50 US cents.

July crude oil futures are plunging $4.90 lower to $91.70/barrel. Oil prices are selling down this morning to two-week lows as optimism grew that the United States and Iran were moving closer to a peace deal, even though they remain at odds over key issues such as blockades on the Strait of Hormuz.

Notwithstanding all the caveats and risks that remain to the peace deal and Strait of Hormuz, there is now some light at the end of the tunnel, which will bring some near-term oil price relief, said MST Marquee analyst Saul Kavonic.

Stay informed with our daily market videos. Each video quickly covers key futures moves, price trends, and market signals that matter to Canadian farmers. Get clear, timely insights in just a few minutes. Bookmark https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/videos

To access the latest futures prices, go to https://www.producer.com/markets-futures-prices/