U.S. hard red winter wheat crop finds itself in trouble

The wheat market has been on a roller coaster over the past six weeks.

Like many commodities, wheat posted gains after the onset of the Iranian war. This led to the spring wheat market climbing to a contract high at the end of March.

A crude oil sell-off on April 7 pushed the July spring wheat contract to gap lower and temporarily tested the recent market lows.

Over the past week, spring wheat futures have rallied and are now hitting new contract highs.

The crop in the southern U.S. Plains is under stress from a persistent drought that has expanded through the spring.

The panhandle of Texas, western Oklahoma and central and western Kansas have received less than 20 per cent of normal precipitation over the past 60 days.

The forecast was calling for some rain in the region this past week, but amounts appeared to be mostly less than one inch.

That is not enough rainfall to sustain the growth of the crop, which is entering the maximum water use period of the growth cycle.

The crop ratings are reflecting the dry conditions in the southern Plains, with Kansas dropping by eight per cent to only 24 per cent good to excellent last week. This is down from 58 per cent good to excellent in early March.

Oklahoma and Texas crop conditions are in even worse shape, with only 10 and 14 per cent rated as good to excellent, respectively.

Crop ratings are an indication that yield potential in the southern Plains is dropping rapidly.

Yields in Kansas were close to record last year at 51 bushels per acre. Crop conditions were substantially higher in 2025, which led to the higher yield potential.

Crop ratings at this point in the growing season indicate that yields will drop 10 to 20 per cent from last year.

One concern is that winter wheat development in the southern Plains is ahead of average, with Kansas reporting 76 per cent of the crop in the jointing stage on April 19 and 15 per cent of the crop in the heading stage.

The portion of the Kansas crop in the jointing stage is 13 per cent ahead of last year and 25 per cent ahead of the five-year average.

Oklahoma reported that 30 per cent of the crop was in the heading stage, while Texas indicated that 49 per cent was heading.

Two weekends ago also brought additional challenges for the hard red winter crop, with freezing temperatures reported from western Nebraska to the Texas panhandle.

The advanced state of the crop leaves it vulnerable to frost damage, with overnight lows ranging from -1 to -3 C for a number of hours on both mornings.

The markets have largely discounted the frost event, but it is another factor that is limiting yield potential.

Keep a close eye on the weather in the southern Plains during the next month as it will largely determine the eventual HRW output in 2026.

With global winter wheat crops in generally good condition in Europe and the Black Sea region, the southern Plains is the only major producing region that is under a significant weather threat. Remember that lower U.S. wheat output will have a limited impact on international prices but may provide an excellent pricing opportunity for Canadian farmers.